Summit Essay
September Sea Ice
— Sigrid Jørgensen, Founder and Chair of ARCTECH SummitToday, September sea ice routinely falls below one million square kilometers. The region is warming four times faster than the global average, changing from a frozen wilderness into a new frontier of both promise and danger.
"We've traded one Arctic for another," Dr. Jian Li told me during my visit to Nuvok Arctic Transit's engineering facilities. "The question is whether we understand the one we've created."
Dr. Li, whose work in adaptive maritime technology has transformed northern shipping, will deliver one of our Climate Stream's keynote. As Chief Engineer at Polazenith, he's developed AI systems that predict ice conditions with remarkable accuracy—though he's careful to note their limits.
"Our models have less than six percent error in year-ahead predictions, but the Arctic remains unpredictable," he said, showing me simulations of ships navigating the dangerous marginal ice zones that now dominate winter seascapes. "Unescorted commercial shipping in winter is still mostly theoretical."
This tension between what technology promises and what it can deliver runs through all our climate discussions. While Russian "Lider" class icebreakers can break through four meters of ice, the thinner ice forming each winter creates its own hazards—sudden breakage, rapid movement, and higher collision risks that challenge even the best navigation systems.
"We've traded one Arctic for another," Dr. Jian Li told me.
The changes go far beyond sea ice. Rain has replaced snow as the main winter precipitation in many coastal areas. Over 40% of permafrost is thawing, turning from carbon sink to source. This unstable ground threatens billions in infrastructure and releases gases that speed up the very warming causing the thaw—a cycle that experts struggle to address.
"Our people have always adapted," she said, "but never this quickly or completely."
Her work on indigenous digital rights challenges how we think about technology in the North. Finland's growing cattle industry has expanded grasslands into former reindeer grazing areas, creating new carbon sinks even as deeper permafrost releases stored carbon. Meanwhile, mining operations extract minerals from traditional lands, and the landscape of Sápmi continues to transform rapidly.
Against this backdrop of change, Sámi communities are creating AI tools for language preservation and environmental monitoring, developing technological sovereignty alongside traditional knowledge systems.
What struck me most was the lack of shared decision-making. "The companies and the autonomous systems reshaping our homeland operate largely without indigenous input," Dr. Ravdna noted. "We're still waiting for meaningful participation."
The problems aren't limited to the Arctic. Mediterranean summers now regularly reach 50°C, pushing people northward across Europe. Water rights trade globally, their prices reflecting growing scarcity.
ARCTECH's Climate Stream brings together those facing these connected challenges:
- How do we manage climate modification responsibly?
- What sustainable approaches work in the accessible Arctic?
- How do we build fair societies amid displacement and resource competition?
By Sigrid Jørgensen | Illustrations by Miiko Uusitalo
Sigrid and Miiko travelled together to speak to the different keynote speakers for this story [February 3 2045]
Sigrid and Miiko travelled together to speak to the different keynote speakers for this story [February 3 2045]